[BLML] Could have known
agot at ulb.ac.be
Fri May 20 13:47:47 CEST 2016
Le 20.05.2016 11:42, Herman De Wael a écrit :
> Vigfús Pálsson schreef:
>> Are we really suggesting to use of law 73F here?
>> If it is, then something is missing in this story.
> maybe you did not read the same into it as I did. My question is why it
> would not be ruled such in OZ.
> Let's see (I'm now going on to the original, see further)
>> Well In Iceland, the ruling is "Next board please"
>> Vigfus Palsson
>> ----- Upprunaleg skilaboð -----
>> Frá: "Tony Musgrove" <ardelm at optusnet.com.au>
>> Til: "BLML" <blml at rtflb.org>
>> Sent: Föstudagur, 20. Maí, 2016 06:34:39
>> Efni: [BLML] Could have known
>>> From the latest ABF Newsletter:
>> 8 6
>> A10 8 7 6 2
>> K10 2
>> A Q
>> 9 3 J 4
>> K J 9 5 3
>> 8 4 3 A 9 6
>> K J 6 3 2 10 9 8 5
>> A K Q 10 7 5
>> Q 4
>> Q J 7 5
>> Playing 6S by South, West gets off to sneaky
>> HJ lead. Rising HA, South will discard heart
>> loser on successful club finesse. However
>> upon drawing trumps, East discards heart on
>> third spade, but immediately corrects to
>> spade. Now South feels inclined to play low
>> heart to Q since East's heart is a penalty card.
>> Bad luck, 1 down.
>> So, in OZ, no problem, laughed away, but I
>> presume that in other countries, the "could
>> have known" law would be wheeled out
>> rather quickly. With what result?
> Let's try to construct a "could have known" story:
> East knows, from the lead, that South has the queen of hearts.
> Let's suppose he knows from the bidding that South has real diamonds.
> there can be no other winner for his side than the Ace of clubs. If
> South still needs it, the queen of clubs is also a trick. So if South
> has the king of hearts as well, there is no more play. So East can
> assume west has the king, and has led a sneaky jack.
> So south may assume East has the king of hearts, and taking a penalty
> card in hearts may lead south to play towards his queen, if there is
> still a choice between two lines (south does not know the club finesse
> is on).
> So from East's perspective, taking a penalty card is a move which might
> lead south to a different, losing line.
> East could certainly have known that taking a penalty card might be to
> his advantage.
AG : It is possible, but only if East is strong enough to be able to
reconstruct all this in the 40 seconds it takes to play to the first
four tricks (South's line of play being pretty obvious).
Furthermore, if West is able to lead a tricky Jack from KJ, why not from
QJ ? Which seems to change quite a bit, because declarer, holding K9x,
is going to finesse in hearts.
And in that case the Heart discard helps South, because he will know you
aren't going to discard from remaining Qx(x), and he might then guess
Whence "could have known", while being theoretically correct, is
probably wrong at the table.
More information about the Blml