[BLML] Eric's position on disclosure when unsure
agot at ulb.ac.be
Wed Nov 7 17:44:06 CET 2012
Le 7/11/2012 16:26, Eric Landau a écrit :
> On Nov 6, 2012, at 1:17 PM, Nigel Guthrie wrote:
>> [Alain Gottcheiner]
>> 1) assessing such probabilities to the percent is impossible
>> 2) "It's either Flannery or a weak two in diamonds. In our club, 2D is usually Flannery." doesn't perfectly comply with the requirement to disclose your agreement (or its absence). Opponents won't be able to work on the basis of one precise meaning.
>> IMO, if you think “Flannery” is the most likely meaning, the law should stipulate that you say so. Typically, it would be hard to list likely factors that led you to your conclusion. In any case, associated with each of those factors, there *another* controversial probability element. Hence that information is is usually less reliable than the raw guess. Unfortunately, such waffle makes your explanation less comprehensible. Arguably, obfuscation should not be the law-makers’ intent.
> If you think Flannery is the most likely meaning, but you also think that there is some significant possibility that it might have been intended as a weak two, and you will take this into account in choosing your subsequent calls, then "such waffle" may indeed make your explanation less comprehensible, but claiming that it is definitively Flannery will make your *auction* less comprehensible. Choosing the latter is therefore not just MI, but *deliberate* MI.
Giving alternate possibilities will never be "my agreements, all my
agreements and only my agreements", whence will never conform to the law.
Saying "I don't know, but here is what's relevant" may be the right
answer, if indeed there is no explicit agreement.
Saying "I don't know" and going away from the table will create some UI,
but will at least let partner tell them what they are entitled to know.
Guessing could create MI, of course, but I never said that I would
guess. In fact, I would not.
Perhaps you've fallen in the same trap that you see in Jerry's eye :
finding it more easy to fight other peoples' views by re-defining them
in such a way that they're obviously wrong.
> Eric Landau
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> Silver Spring MD 20910
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