[BLML] The Monty Hall trap [SEC=UNOFFICIAL]

Alain Gottcheiner agot at ulb.ac.be
Mon Dec 6 11:18:01 CET 2010


Le 6/12/2010 2:31, richard.hills at immi.gov.au a écrit :
>
> Richard Hills:
>
> Not quite my point.  My argument is that:
>
> (a) only hearts and clubs were initially logical
>      alternatives for the opening lead,
>
> (b) pard could have two types of hands, either
>       (i) relatively balanced with both hearts and clubs,
>           or
>      (ii) long strong suit with either hearts or clubs,
>           as was the case at the table.
>
> (c) pard's hesitation demonstrably suggested (ii).
>
AG : but this might be taken as promoting long Hearts from a 1/4 
probability to a 1/2 probability, whence suggested.


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