[BLML] The Monty Hall trap [SEC=UNOFFICIAL]
agot at ulb.ac.be
Mon Dec 6 11:18:01 CET 2010
Le 6/12/2010 2:31, richard.hills at immi.gov.au a écrit :
> Richard Hills:
> Not quite my point. My argument is that:
> (a) only hearts and clubs were initially logical
> alternatives for the opening lead,
> (b) pard could have two types of hands, either
> (i) relatively balanced with both hearts and clubs,
> (ii) long strong suit with either hearts or clubs,
> as was the case at the table.
> (c) pard's hesitation demonstrably suggested (ii).
AG : but this might be taken as promoting long Hearts from a 1/4
probability to a 1/2 probability, whence suggested.
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