[BLML] The Monty Hall trap [SEC=UNOFFICIAL]
agot at ulb.ac.be
Fri Dec 3 14:32:58 CET 2010
Le 3/12/2010 14:06, gampas at aol.com a écrit :
> [Paul Lamford]
> I agree that the second most likely explanation for the BIT is either
> solid hearts or solid clubs, and the former is more likely on available
> spaces, but partner is more likely to have bid hearts than clubs, which
> probably about cancels it out.
AG : this depends heavily on partnership. In mine, the most likely
explanation is that partner doubled to show two suits, intending to bid
his long suit next, but the sequence made it slightly too risky to do so.
My partners would typcally hold Kx - AJxx - x - KQJxxx. Would reversing
rounded suits be possible ? Yes, but not facing everyone.
So, in some partnerships, clubs are suggested, while in others, the two
logical alternatives of a heart and a club aren't suggested over eachother.
But the important part is : nobody would dream of making a
lead-directing double against 2NT, holding short diamonds, when they can
so easily escape to diamonds.
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