[BLML] The Monty Hall trap [SEC=UNOFFICIAL]

richard.hills at immi.gov.au richard.hills at immi.gov.au
Wed Dec 1 23:34:28 CET 2010


Swiss Teams
Dlr: North
Vul: East-West

The bidding has gone:

WEST      NORTH     EAST      SOUTH
---       1D        Pass      1S
X (1)     1NT       Pass      2NT
Pass      3NT       Pass      Pass
Pass

(1) Double shows at least four hearts and probable clubs

You, East, hold:

T82
83
87652
652

What is your opening lead?

Alain Gottcheiner:

>AG : at teams, hopes are limited. However, since partner would
>perhaps bid 2H on 54

Richard Hills:

Not any "perhaps" in my style.  I hate failing in 3NT when 4H with
a 5-3 trump fit is cold.

Alain Gottcheiner:

>but surely not 2C on 45, I'm inclined to lead a club.
>
>Of course, partner might hold  xxx-KQJT-Ax-Axxx as well as xxx-
>Axxx-Ax-KQJT, so it's not more than a guess.

Richard Hills:

East's relative lengths in hearts and clubs makes it more than a
guess.

Ron Johnson:

>>I'm not inclined to lead a heart here. Feels like that's doing
>>declarer's work for him.

Alain Gottcheiner:

>Response to what I guess to be the second question : no, the
>tempo doesn't suggest any lead more than another.

Jamie Whyte, Crimes Against Logic, page 5:

1. If someone is entitled to an opinion then her opinion is well-
   supported by evidence. (This is precisely what it means to be
   entitled to an opinion.)
2. I am entitled to my opinion (as is everyone in a democratic
   society).
3. Therefore, my opinion is well-supported by evidence.

Swiss Teams
Dlr: North
Vul: East-West

The bidding has gone:

WEST      NORTH     Alain     SOUTH
---       1D        Pass      1S
X (1)     1NT       Pass      2NT
Pass(2)   3NT       Pass      Pass
Pass

(1) Double shows at least four hearts and probable clubs
(2) Break in tempo

Alain Gottcheiner, East, holds:

T82
83
87652
652

What does West's break in tempo demonstrably suggest to someone
of the same _class of player_ as Alain Gottcheiner?

Which opening leads remain legal for Alain Gottcheiner (with it
being irrelevant that Alain -- perhaps incorrectly -- believes
that he is unrestricted in choice of opening lead)?

Best wishes

Richard Hills
Recruitment Section
Specialist Recruitment Team
Level 5 Aqua, workstation W569, 6223 8453
DIAC Social Club movie tickets



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